Aikerly's Note：while addressing urban mobility challenges. They promise to revolutionize travel, easing traffic congestion and expanding travel options. Despite technical and regulatory hurdles, flying cars are poised to become a key component of future transportation systems. As policies evolve and markets adapt, flying cars are expected to transition from early demonstrations to widespread commercial use, reshaping the automotive and aviation industries. With potential benefits ranging from reduced environmental impact to enhanced urban rescue capabilities, flying cars represent a transformative innovation with far-reaching societal implications.Lightweight materials will have revolutionary growth in use.

Flying cars, which will revolutionize human travel methods, are approaching

China Business News•Listen to the news at 20:33 yesterday

Author: Zhang Rui Editor: Ren Shaomin

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First, South Korea's Hyundai Motor launched the first electric flying taxi S-A2 at this year's CES event, the world's first technology exhibition; then, Shanghai Fengfei Airlines' flying car "Shengshi Dragon" successfully completed its maiden flight on the world's first cross-sea and cross-city air route from Shenzhen to Zhuhai，immediately afterwards, Alef Aeronautics, a flying car company backed by Musk's SpaceX company, announced that its flying car Alef Model A has received more than 2,850 pre-orders. Dense and eye-catching information clearly indicates that Flying cars, poised to revolutionize human travel methods, are rapidly advancing.  

Like traditional aviation aircraft, flying cars can also fly into the sky, but the flight altitude is controlled below 1,000 meters, and the number of passengers they can carry is far less than the former; in addition, compared with small ground manned cars, some flying cars have both land and air capabilities. However, flying cars in the current strict sense refer to electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft (eVTOL). Correspondingly, many companies around the world have basically given up on the ground driving function of flying cars and instead focused on the development and improvement of flight functions.

The world's first cross-sea and cross-city air route (Shenzhen-Zhuhai) witnessed its inaugural flight.

economics and sociology significance

According to Morgan Stanley's forecast, by 2030, 12,000 flying cars will be put into commercial use around the world, with a market size of US$300 billion. In 2040, the market size will exceed US$1.5 trillion, and in 2050, the market size will reach US$9 trillion; another On the one hand, from the perspective of industrial economics, any product carries industry-related effects. From an upstream perspective, flying cars can drive demand for raw materials based on carbon fiber technologies such as aviation aluminum, magnesium alloys and special glass. The midstream covers the core parts of the industrial chain such as engines, batteries and complete machine manufacturing, while the downstream involves land and air. The release of industrial value such as transportation infrastructure construction and operation service supply, and the application scenarios of flying cars are very rich.

Compared with the industrial and economic value, the social significance of flying cars is more inclusive and significant. The most important thing is that it will inevitably trigger a major revolution in human travel methods. An authoritative report from the United Nations points out that rapidly developing cities have created increasing mobility needs for residents. By 2050, 68% of the world's population will live in urban areas, and people who go out will have to endure large traffic areas. and the agony of prolonged congestion. But with flying cars, transportation vehicles have expanded into the air, thus forming urban air transportation (UAM). UAM not only combines air transportation with ground transportation, but air transportation is also divided into different layers to form the city. With the three-dimensional transportation system, human travel space has also expanded from the two-dimensional level to the three-dimensional level. As a result, the demand pressure of ground transportation has been effectively decomposed, and the traffic congestion problem that has long troubled city managers has been fundamentally solved.

Yes, airplanes, especially commercial airliners and helicopters, have already opened up space for public air travel. However, not only are these two means of transportation limited in supply capacity, but also due to high operating and consumption costs, they can only remain in niche markets. Take a helicopter as an example. If a company wants to put it into commercial use, not counting the later operation and maintenance costs, the initial manufacturing or purchase costs will be between 8 million and 100 million yuan. In terms of consumption costs, at present Take the domestic Guangzhou-Shenzhen commuter route as an example. Even if the operator provides subsidies, passenger expenses are still about 10 times that of ground transportation. Relatively speaking, under large-scale mature application conditions, the mileage unit price of flying cars is only 2 to 3 times that of ground taxis, which is more cost-effective; unlike helicopters, which require a large and fixed apron, flying cars only have a sufficient open space. For example, urban rooftops and idle ground can land and take off smoothly, and the overall cost is lower; in addition, you can make a one-click reservation through the mobile phone platform, and the journey time is only 20% to 25% of ground travel, and the overall travel efficiency is also better.

A little extended thinking will also reveal that the very significant sociological significance of flying cars actually goes far beyond transportation. With the progress of urbanization, the skyscrapers that have sprung up in major cities around the world have created urban landscapes, but they have also created new problems for super-high-rise firefighting and super-high-rise medical rescue. Today's ladders can only reach On the 15th to 16th floor, no matter how high it is, there is nothing you can do, but eVTOL has no restrictions and can completely ensure the rapid arrival of firefighting and medical rescue forces and close-range, high-efficiency rescue; on the other hand, eVTOL can purely extend the public travel space while Electric power can not only support its own zero emissions, but also reduce the gasoline and diesel consumption of ground vehicles. It is more friendly to the environment and is more conducive to reducing the carbon footprint of mankind.

Policy empowerment and market reinforcement

As an important part of the low-altitude economy, flying cars span the three major manufacturing fields of aircraft manufacturing, automobile manufacturing, and electric aircraft manufacturing. They involve strategic emerging industries such as new energy, aerospace, high-end manufacturing, and autonomous driving. They are often new business formats and new types of vehicles. An important carrier for the gestation and growth of industrial organizations, it will play a key role in the upgrading of a country's industrial economic structure and the improvement of comprehensive economic quality. It has also become a major strategic track for various countries. The US Federal Aviation Administration even uses the phrase "cannot afford to lose" competition” to describe the importance of eVTOL.

At present, major economies generally show a positive and open attitude towards eVTOL policies. Among them, the US military has launched the "Agility First" project to support private enterprises in using government resources to accelerate the research and development of eVTOL aircraft, and the European Aviation Safety Agency The eVTOL aircraft has developed a set of planning plans and detailed airworthiness standards in advance. The Japanese government will issue a new pilot license for "flying cars" and a mechanic's license for repairing "flying cars". South Korea has issued a "control issue for eVTOL" K-UAM” air traffic planning solution. In comparison, China’s policies around eVTOL are more systematic and forward-looking. The "Green Aviation Manufacturing Development Outline (2023~2035)" issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other four departments proposes that electric general aviation aircraft will be put into commercial application pilot operation by 2025, and that new energy aircraft will become the mainstream of development by 2035, and the "Unmanned Aircraft Flight" The Interim Regulations on Management will come into effect on January 1 this year. In terms of specific support measures, in addition to designating 13 regions across the country, including Beijing's Yanqing District, as unmanned aviation test bases, the entire provinces of Hunan, Sichuan, and Anhui have been designated as low-altitude flight reform pilot provinces.

The protection of policies has inspired higher enthusiasm from market forces. The commercial competition on the flying car track presents four distinct patterns.. Among them are aviation industry hegemons Boeing, Airbus, Bell and Japan Airlines, as well as Volkswagen, Hyundai, There are lineups of leading new and old car players such as General Motors and Tesla, as well as global technology giants such as Google and Intel, as well as many start-up companies such as Joby Aviation in the United States, Volocopte in Germany, SkyDrive in Japan, and China’s Fengfei Airlines, etc. Statistics show that the number of global eVTOL R&D and manufacturing companies has increased from more than 600 in 2022 to more than 800 in 2023, and eVTOL market orders have exceeded 13,000 units.

Generally speaking, flying cars have moved beyond the initial concept stage, and according to procedures, an eVTOL product must first obtain a TC model certificate for design, then apply for a PC certificate for production, and finally obtain a flight certificate. The AC airworthiness certificate can only be put into commercial use. In comparison, it is not a problem for eVTOL products to meet the standards at present, and large-scale test flights are being carried out. Although no company in the world has obtained the AC airworthiness certificate, the initial commercial operation stage is in logistics and distribution. The accumulated experience in special commercial applications in physical and chemical scenarios such as pesticide spraying and sightseeing will surely serve as a pool of resources for future large-scale commercial applications, especially manned commercial applications.

Overcoming obstacles and subsequent trends

According to authoritative experts in the industry, flying cars are expected to undergo early commercial demonstration operations until 2030. From 2030 to 2050, they will gradually transition into the era of commercial operation, and beyond 2050, urban air transportation development will flourish. In essence, it will take at least 15 years before flying cars can truly demonstrate their potential in manned commercial use.During this period, flying cars must further overcome obstacles in both technical and non-technical fields.

Due to the influence of the earth's gravity and air resistance, the same lithium or hydrogen battery may have a range of hundreds of kilometers when installed on a ground car, but the range when installed on a flying car is only a few dozen minutes. Due to the need to overcome its own weight in the air, flying cars cannot stack batteries without limit. Therefore, so far, the power of flying cars can only meet the short-distance needs between cities within the province. Extending the flight distance requires further technical refinement and improvement of battery energy density.

In addition, although flying cars can be equipped with multiple propellers to increase safety redundancy, similar to the noise generated by a helicopter's single propeller during flight, flying cars also do not solve the problem of noise pollution in cities at low altitudes. Especially as many landing pads for flying cars are close to residential and office areas, and their number is larger than that of helicopters, the density of aircraft is higher, resulting in greater noise. The maturity of related obstruction and shielding technologies will take more time to accumulate.

In terms of non-technical factors, the future batch commercial operation of flying cars will inevitably lead to a surge in the flow of people, logistics, capital, and information in the city, subsequently demanding comprehensive and timely facilities such as landing sites, docking stations, and charging stations. The satisfaction of these conditions requires adjustments in urban planning and the displacement and reconstruction of ground physical facilities as the basic premise. The transition from demonstration to implementation is by no means an overnight process.

In terms of airspace management, flying cars’ route formulation, path planning, flight separation, conflict avoidance, airspace waiting, air law enforcement, and accident liability division all require the formulation of a new "air traffic management system" according to the situation. So far, no country in the world has formulated clear and unified standards and regulations for flying cars. In the absence of an established system to follow, the time required for the implementation of relevant systems will be prolonged.

Obviously, exchanging time for space will be the objective choice for flying cars. As momentum accumulates, the entire flying car industry will move in the following four directions:

Firstly, in terms of competition entities, there will be a shift from separate forces to mergers and acquisitions. Flying cars are a capital- and technology-intensive industry requiring the integration and matching of multiple disciplines and technologies. The financial cost before commercialization alone reaches 1 billion U.S. dollars, and the later operation and maintenance costs are significant. This will inevitably stimulate or force enterprises to carry out integration and mergers and acquisitions, upgrading the industry competition ecology from individual fighting to joint collaboration.

Secondly, regarding market path, B-side services will initially be provided, followed by C-side services. In the early stages of commercialization, flying cars' service supply in logistics, transportation, medical rescue, fire extinguishing, emergency rescue, and public safety often caters to the needs of B-end enterprises. Flight tests during the operation process will gradually integrate flying cars into the city's transportation system, eventually launching manned services to the general public when conditions mature.

Thirdly, in terms of the business model, there will be a shift from "buying flying cars" first to "buying flying cars" later. In the short term, expensive flying cars are unaffordable for most consumers, along with high storage, management, and maintenance costs. Therefore, the commercialization of flying cars will first take the form of a platform operation model, akin to "online ride-hailing," providing "ride-hailing" services to companies and individuals. As technology advances and purchase costs decrease, "ride-hailing" will gradually become more accessible.

Finally, regarding driving methods, the combination of manned driving and unmanned driving will transition to unmanned driving. Mainstream flying car companies in Europe and the United States currently adopt manned driving modes, while countries like China and Japan advocate unmanned driving. The latter not only offers cost advantages but is also notably safer. In autopilot mode, accurate flight isolation can be achieved through electronic fences, and fixed-point routes can be accurately set, enabling the aircraft to automatically transport passengers to their destinations. This fully automated process greatly reduces the probability of flight errors.

(Author: Director of the China Marketing Society and Professor of Economics)